Not earning or learning
SRAG Briefing June 2026
One million young people, and the workforce we will need
Youth economic inactivity, the social care crisis, and the practical steps business can take now.
In January to March 2026, more than a million people aged 16 to 24 in the UK were not in education, employment or training. It is the highest figure in twelve years, and it sits alongside a social care sector that will need hundreds of thousands more workers within fifteen years. For any organisation that recruits, bids for public contracts, or carries social value commitments, these two facts are connected, and they are commercial as much as social.
The position is serious, but the evidence is consistent, it is not partisan, and it points to actions that work.
The figures that matter
| The number | What it tells us |
|---|---|
| 1,012,000 | 16 to 24 year olds NEET in January to March 2026. The highest level in twelve years, and one in eight of the age group. |
| £125 billion | Estimated annual cost to the UK economy in lost output, tax revenue, and additional welfare and health spending. |
| 1.25 million | The level NEET numbers could reach by 2031 without reform. One in six young people. |
| 57% vs 43% | Young people who are NEET are now more likely to be economically inactive than unemployed. Most are not currently looking for work. |
| 6 in 10 | Of those NEET today have never had a job, up from four in ten in 2005. |
| 470,000 | Additional adult social care posts needed in England by 2040, a rise of 27%. |
| 84% | Of young people say they want a job, education or training. The evidence does not support the idea of a generation that will not work. |
Sources: ONS labour market statistics and the Milburn interim report (May 2026); Skills for Care workforce data (England, 2024/25).
What has changed
Youth unemployment has changed character. The larger problem is no longer young people temporarily between jobs but detachment from the labour market altogether. The ONS estimates 1,012,000 people aged 16 to 24 were NEET in early 2026, up 89,000 on the year and representing 13.5% of the age group. Of those, 57% are economically inactive rather than unemployed, and six in ten have never held a job.
The Rt. Hon. Alan Milburn's interim report, published on 28 May 2026, attributes the rise to a shortage of entry-level jobs and to education, health and welfare systems that have not kept pace. Health, and mental health in particular, is central: around one in five young people who are NEET report a mental health condition, and 76% say their wellbeing directly affects their ability to look for work. The pattern is self-reinforcing. Of those who became inactive for health reasons between 2017 and 2019, almost eight in ten were still NEET more than two years later.
The data does not show an unwilling generation. Eighty-four per cent say they want a job, education or training, around 30% have good GCSEs, over 21% hold a Level 3 qualification, and 15% have a degree. A large number of young people want to work, many are capable of working, and the route in has narrowed.
Why this is a business problem
Milburn puts the current cost of youth economic inactivity at around £125 billion a year, and estimates NEET numbers could reach 1.25 million by 2031 without reform. For employers the consequence is practical. Entry-level roles feed every other role in an organisation, and as that pool shrinks and becomes less work-ready, the cost of recruiting, training and retaining people rises. The effect lands first on the sectors that depend most on entry-level and frontline workers.
The social care lens: two crises that are really one
Adult social care makes the collision visible. Skills for Care reports around 1.6 million filled posts in England, roughly 111,000 vacancies on any given day, and turnover of about a quarter of the workforce each year. The sector will need an estimated 470,000 additional posts by 2040, while the population aged over 85 almost doubles and dementia cases rise by 43%, from 982,000 to 1.4 million.
International recruitment, which carried recent workforce growth, has roughly halved in a year, from around 105,000 new recruits in 2023/24 to about 50,000 in 2024/25, while the number of British nationals in the workforce fell by 30,000. Domestic recruitment now has to do considerably more, at the very moment the domestic supply of young workers is detaching. These are not two separate problems. They are two ends of the same broken pipeline, and the same logic applies to hospitality, retail, logistics, construction and manufacturing.
How long this runs
This is a long problem, with a window of impact of roughly fifteen to twenty-five years, peaking around 2040. Demographic demand is largely fixed, and the scarring of the current cohort is also long: a young person who spends an extended period out of work can lose up to £300,000 in lifetime earnings. By the 2040s, today's eighteen year olds are the core of the working-age population and of the care workforce. The pipeline employers will recruit from at the end of this decade is being shaped right now.
Social value is now a procurement reality
There is a direct commercial reason to act beyond the labour market itself. Under the Procurement Act 2023, in force since February 2025, public sector buyers expect bidders to evidence the social value they create, scored against the PPN 002 Social Value Model. Three of its five themes map almost exactly onto this issue: Tackling Economic Inequality (Theme 2), Equal Opportunity (Theme 4) and Wellbeing (Theme 5). The Social Recruitment Covenant, a DWP backed pledge to inclusive hiring, maps to the Social Value Model and the Procurement Act 2023, so activity that might once have been treated as goodwill can now count in bids, provided it is structured and measured properly.
What business can do now
- Reopen the first rung. Review entry-level job descriptions and remove requirements that are not genuinely needed. This is the single action Milburn asks employers to take now, and it costs little. (Theme 2)
- Design roles around health from the start. Phased starts, reasonable adjustments and early supportive conversations are what make a first job stick. (Themes 4 and 5)
- Lower the first step with work experience. Taster days, short placements and guaranteed interviews directly address the fact that six in ten of those not in education, employment or training have never had a job.
- Recruit through a structured pipeline, not ad hoc goodwill. Work with referral partners so roles reach young people who have become detached, including those not currently searching.
- Measure it and report it. Capture job starts, retention and progression against established standards, so the work counts in bids and board reporting.
- Act collectively. No single employer fixes a national pipeline alone.
How SRAG and our partners help
The Social Recruitment Advocacy Group, chaired by the Rt. Hon. Anne Milton, brings together member organisations that collectively employ over 500,000 people. Its Charter Mark, running through Bronze, Silver, Gold, Ambassador and now Patron levels and assessed with the PeoplePlus Social Value Solutions team, gives members a structured path of improvement rather than a one-off pledge.
Membership reaches into the education and skills system that shapes these routes long before a first job is advertised, including further education colleges such as Birmingham Metropolitan College (BMet), Nescot, The Bedford College Group and Northern College, alongside awarding organisations Gateway Qualifications and AIM.
Within the network, a youth-focused partner cluster works specifically on the journey from education into a first job:
- Springpod reaches hundreds of thousands of young people with virtual work experience that closes the career readiness gap.
- Rise Up works with 16 to 30 year old's through coaching, work experience and referrals, with particular strength in Greater Manchester.
- The School Outreach Company connects employers, schools and students across the UK, focused on inclusive talent pipelines and social mobility. (Look out for the booking link to a SRAG Lunch and Learn with them in September).
- Sport 4 Life uses sport-based mentoring and accredited training to move 11 to 29 year olds who are NEET, or at risk of it, into education, employment or training, supporting 3,875 young people in 2025.
- Future First connects state schools with former pupils as relatable role models.
- Inspiration for All pairs school leaders with business leaders in peer mentoring, with more than 500 matches across over 250 schools in 76 local authority areas, reaching around 500,000 students. Several SRAG members are part of the current cohort and we look forward to sharing insight from their experience.
For delivery, the Social Recruitment Framework is a free national service that has worked with more than 200 employers across over 800 locations, supporting upwards of 60,000 people and placing more than 13,000 into employment, including in care. LearningPlus adds funded routes through Skills Bootcamps and Adult Skills Fund training in areas including care, warehousing and digital skills.
The one thing to take away
More than a million young people are detached from work and learning now, the social care sector and many others will need them within fifteen years, and the route into a first job has narrowed for reasons that are largely fixable. Every business that recruits has a reason to act, commercial as much as social, and the steps that work are known, affordable and ready to use.
If you take one action away from this page, review your entry-level roles, open at least one genuine first-job route this year, then measure it and share your learning with SRAG members.
To get started, contact the SRAG team at [email protected], or the Social Recruitment Framework at [email protected].
